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📅 Tuesday 02. December ⏰ 20:45 🏆 England League One
⚔️Wigan - Burton
🔢 2,04
🎲 Epicbet
🎯 Burton +0,5 Handicap
Two teams that both have 22 points. Wigan were ranked slightly above Burton before the season, and with a slightly better xG figure, it is true that they are favorites at home – but in my opinion they are a bit too big favorites. Wigan has an xG for and 1.36 against, while Burton has 1.36 for and 1.56 against, so relatively equal numbers.
Burton thrives well away and has delivered several strong performances away from home. Examples:
Bradford (promotion candidate) – Burton 1–2, xG 1.58–1.49
Wimbledon (top team) – Burton 0–1, xG 1.39–0.98
Both were deserved victories against good teams, and it indicates that Burton can also play evenly against Wigan.
Wigan have also not impressed at home so far: one win, one draw and one loss in their last three, against teams like Stevenage, Port Vale and Wycombe. All the games have been even, and I think this one will be too.
In the last five head-to-head matches, Burton have three wins and two draws.
Away teams pick up points in around 55% of the games in this league, and given the conditions I think Burton have at least a 52% chance of taking points. That brings the value down to 1.92 on Burton +0.5 Asian handicap.
📅 Tuesday 02. December ⏰ 20:45 🏆 England League One
⚔️Wigan - Burton
🔢 2,04
🎲 Epicbet
🎯 Burton +0,5 Handicap
Two teams that both have 22 points. Wigan were ranked slightly above Burton before the season, and with a slightly better xG figure, it is true that they are favorites at home – but in my opinion they are a bit too big favorites. Wigan has an xG for and 1.36 against, while Burton has 1.36 for and 1.56 against, so relatively equal numbers.
Burton thrives well away and has delivered several strong performances away from home. Examples:
Bradford (promotion candidate) – Burton 1–2, xG 1.58–1.49
Wimbledon (top team) – Burton 0–1, xG 1.39–0.98
Both were deserved victories against good teams, and it indicates that Burton can also play evenly against Wigan.
Wigan have also not impressed at home so far: one win, one draw and one loss in their last three, against teams like Stevenage, Port Vale and Wycombe. All the games have been even, and I think this one will be too.
In the last five head-to-head matches, Burton have three wins and two draws.
Away teams pick up points in around 55% of the games in this league, and given the conditions I think Burton have at least a 52% chance of taking points. That brings the value down to 1.92 on Burton +0.5 Asian handicap.
📅 Tuesday 02.December ⏰ 21:15 🏆 Premier League
⚔️Newcastle - Tottenham
🔢 2,19
🎲 Epicbet
🎯 Under 2,5 goals
Two teams that create very little, and the numbers indicate a tight and goalless affair. At least 47% chance and value down to 2.10. The last two mutual matches have ended under 2.5 goals, also with low xG numbers.
📅 Tuesday 02.December ⏰ 21:15 🏆 Premier League
⚔️Newcastle - Tottenham
🔢 2,19
🎲 Epicbet
🎯 Under 2,5 goals
Two teams that create very little, and the numbers indicate a tight and goalless affair. At least 47% chance and value down to 2.10. The last two mutual matches have ended under 2.5 goals, also with low xG numbers.
📅 Wednesday 03.December ⏰ 20:30 🏆 Premier League
⚔️Burnley - Crystal Palace
🔢 2,12
🎲 Epicbet
🎯 Burnley +0,5 Handicap
Crystal Palace play on Sunday, which could affect the odds here, but I still choose to bet on this early for several reasons. Crystal Palace played in France on Thursday, face Manchester United on Sunday and have this game on Wednesday. The squad is not particularly large, so many of the same players will be in action.
Burnley are bottom and will probably stay there, but they have shown that they can play consistently against most teams, except the very best in the Premier League. They delivered a good performance and a relatively even match against a solid Brentford team, lost 3-2 away to West Ham with xG 1.74-1.9, and they have also beaten both Wolverhampton and Leeds.
They have given away a number of chances at home so far, with an xG against of 1.90, but then we have to remember that the teams they have faced include Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool.
Crystal Palace have had a very tough match schedule, and they thrive best when they are outsiders and can counter-attack their opponents. They probably won't get much of that here. They have won away against other bottom teams like Wolverhampton and West Ham, but there were two very even games that could have gone either way.
Here we get another home team that bites well and is dangerous on long throws, among other things, against a team that has been through a really tough program. I give Burnley almost a 50% chance of points here and value down to about 2.05. Nice early value.
📅 Wednesday 03.December ⏰ 20:30 🏆 Premier League
⚔️Burnley - Crystal Palace
🔢 2,12
🎲 Epicbet
🎯 Burnley +0,5 Handicap
Crystal Palace play on Sunday, which could affect the odds here, but I still choose to bet on this early for several reasons. Crystal Palace played in France on Thursday, face Manchester United on Sunday and have this game on Wednesday. The squad is not particularly large, so many of the same players will be in action.
Burnley are bottom and will probably stay there, but they have shown that they can play consistently against most teams, except the very best in the Premier League. They delivered a good performance and a relatively even match against a solid Brentford team, lost 3-2 away to West Ham with xG 1.74-1.9, and they have also beaten both Wolverhampton and Leeds.
They have given away a number of chances at home so far, with an xG against of 1.90, but then we have to remember that the teams they have faced include Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool.
Crystal Palace have had a very tough match schedule, and they thrive best when they are outsiders and can counter-attack their opponents. They probably won't get much of that here. They have won away against other bottom teams like Wolverhampton and West Ham, but there were two very even games that could have gone either way.
Here we get another home team that bites well and is dangerous on long throws, among other things, against a team that has been through a really tough program. I give Burnley almost a 50% chance of points here and value down to about 2.05. Nice early value.
📅 Saturday 06. December ⏰ 16:00 🏆 Norwegian Cup
⚔️Lillestrøm - Sarpsborg
🔢 1,93
🎲 Epicbet
🎯 Lillestrøm to win outright
A cup final will be played at Ullevaal in a few weeks. It is of course a bit difficult to predict so far in advance, but I think the odds on Lillestrøm will drop a bit, and therefore I choose to bet this one early. As always – let's look at the facts.
Lillestrøm moved up from the OBOS league and have been absolutely superb there with 80 points, 25 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses, as well as a goal difference of 87–18! That is very impressive, even in the OBOS league.
It is difficult to assess the strength of two leagues, but Lillestrøm has knocked out three elite series teams that are all about the same level as Sarpsborg:
Against Kristiansund they won 2–0. xG: 1.62–1.04.
Lillestrøm – KFUM: 2–0 (xG 1.77–0.55).
Lillestrøm – Fredrikstad: 1–1, and Lillestrøm won on penalties. There are no xG figures here, but I watched the match, and Lillestrøm was clearly the best.
Lillestrøm has thus been clearly better than three elite series teams that are all at about the same level as Sarpsborg. The matches were played at home at Åråsen on grass, but the final will also be on grass – at Ullevaal – which is a slight advantage for Lillestrøm compared to Sarpsborg, who play on artificial turf.
Sarpsborg is currently in 11th place in the Eliteserien and is a very good team, especially offensively. They will give Lillestrøm a good fight, but on grass I consider Lillestrøm to be slight favorites, and see an early value of 1.93 for them to take the title.
Note that the odds is under Outright at Epicbet. They have the best odds in the world on this bet now!
Both teams are better offensively than defensively, so over 2.5 goals can also be relevant – even though finals are often goalless.
The odds adjusted now to ca. 1,72 and good valuebet for those who followed early!
📅 Saturday 06. December ⏰ 16:00 🏆 Norwegian Cup
⚔️Lillestrøm - Sarpsborg
🔢 1,93
🎲 Epicbet
🎯 Lillestrøm to win outright
A cup final will be played at Ullevaal in a few weeks. It is of course a bit difficult to predict so far in advance, but I think the odds on Lillestrøm will drop a bit, and therefore I choose to bet this one early. As always – let's look at the facts.
Lillestrøm moved up from the OBOS league and have been absolutely superb there with 80 points, 25 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses, as well as a goal difference of 87–18! That is very impressive, even in the OBOS league.
It is difficult to assess the strength of two leagues, but Lillestrøm has knocked out three elite series teams that are all about the same level as Sarpsborg:
Against Kristiansund they won 2–0. xG: 1.62–1.04.
Lillestrøm – KFUM: 2–0 (xG 1.77–0.55).
Lillestrøm – Fredrikstad: 1–1, and Lillestrøm won on penalties. There are no xG figures here, but I watched the match, and Lillestrøm was clearly the best.
Lillestrøm has thus been clearly better than three elite series teams that are all at about the same level as Sarpsborg. The matches were played at home at Åråsen on grass, but the final will also be on grass – at Ullevaal – which is a slight advantage for Lillestrøm compared to Sarpsborg, who play on artificial turf.
Sarpsborg is currently in 11th place in the Eliteserien and is a very good team, especially offensively. They will give Lillestrøm a good fight, but on grass I consider Lillestrøm to be slight favorites, and see an early value of 1.93 for them to take the title.
Note that the odds is under Outright at Epicbet. They have the best odds in the world on this bet now!
Both teams are better offensively than defensively, so over 2.5 goals can also be relevant – even though finals are often goalless.
The odds adjusted now to ca. 1,72 and good valuebet for those who followed early!
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