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For over 20 years I have worked as an international bookmaker, and odds have been a part of my everyday life all the way. Analysis and use of expected goals – where I look behind the actual results – form much of the basis for my tips. Now I use this experience to give you free odds tips 365 days a year!
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📅 Wednesday 14. January ⏰ 21:00 🏆 Carling Cup
⚔️Chelsea - Arsenal
🔢 1,90
🎲 Epicbet
🎯Under 2,5 goals
This is the first match in this semi-final, and there are several factors that speak for few goals. Arsenal are very good at controlling matches, and they will probably do so here too, before they eventually decide at home. Chelsea have a new manager, who probably has a more cautious approach than his predecessor. Chelsea will probably also learn from how Liverpool succeeded against Arsenal and copy parts of that approach. This is an even match, and the last three head-to-head matches have all ended with under 2.5 goals. The head-to-head match in November was very poor and boring until the sending off and another similar match picture now.
📅 Wednesday 14. January ⏰ 21:00 🏆 Carling Cup
⚔️Chelsea - Arsenal
🔢 1,90
🎲 Epicbet
🎯Under 2,5 goals
This is the first match in this semi-final, and there are several factors that speak for few goals. Arsenal are very good at controlling matches, and they will probably do so here too, before they eventually decide at home. Chelsea have a new manager, who probably has a more cautious approach than his predecessor. Chelsea will probably also learn from how Liverpool succeeded against Arsenal and copy parts of that approach. This is an even match, and the last three head-to-head matches have all ended with under 2.5 goals. The head-to-head match in November was very poor and boring until the sending off and another similar match picture now.
📅 Wednesday 14. January ⏰ 21:00 🏆 Africa Cup of Nations
⚔️Nigeria - Morocco
🔢 1,71
🎲 Epicbet
🎯Nigeria +0,5 Handicap
Nigeria were in a class of their own against Alerieg and were superior both physically and in terms of play. The team has enormous physicality, and especially the players at the top are a handful for any opponent. In my mind, they are perhaps the biggest favorite to win the title.
Morocco are slight favorites in the market in this match, and that is probably only due to the home field advantage. Morocco is also a good team, but they have played relatively even matches against everyone so far - even against teams that are significantly weaker than this good Nigeria team.
I expect a close and goalless match between two even teams, with a high chance of extra time. I estimate the probability to be around 60 percent that Nigeria will at least draw in regular time, with a value down to 1.66. Those who want a higher risk can play a draw.
📅 Wednesday 14. January ⏰ 21:00 🏆 Africa Cup of Nations
⚔️Nigeria - Morocco
🔢 1,71
🎲 Epicbet
🎯Nigeria +0,5 Handicap
Nigeria were in a class of their own against Alerieg and were superior both physically and in terms of play. The team has enormous physicality, and especially the players at the top are a handful for any opponent. In my mind, they are perhaps the biggest favorite to win the title.
Morocco are slight favorites in the market in this match, and that is probably only due to the home field advantage. Morocco is also a good team, but they have played relatively even matches against everyone so far - even against teams that are significantly weaker than this good Nigeria team.
I expect a close and goalless match between two even teams, with a high chance of extra time. I estimate the probability to be around 60 percent that Nigeria will at least draw in regular time, with a value down to 1.66. Those who want a higher risk can play a draw.
📅 Thursday 15. January ⏰ 20:45 🏆 Italy Serie A
⚔️Como - Milan
🔢 1,61
🎯Como +0,5 Handicap
I have now twice successfully tipped that Milan will not win, and I just have to try it here too.
Como has 34 points and Milan has 40 points, but Milan has weak underlying numbers and has had some flow. Como has a home xG of 1.62 for and 1.00 against, while Milan away is at a rather weak 1.33 for and 1.41 against.
My bet is Como +0.5 in handicap, but for those who want more risk, Como draw no bet can also be relevant.
Milan has only won 4 of their last 10 away games. Como is unbeaten at home since May!
Como has had some injuries recently, including Morata, but no new injury problems, and they have performed well even with an absence. Milan is also struggling with injuries, and in addition, the important Tomori is suspended.
Milan is a slightly better team in isolation, but with Como at home I see this as an even match. Como also has one day more rest, which is a clear advantage.
I rate it at least a 62% chance of points, and see value down to 1.52.
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📅 Thursday 15. January ⏰ 20:45 🏆 Italy Serie A
⚔️Como - Milan
🔢 1,61
🎯Como +0,5 Handicap
I have now twice successfully tipped that Milan will not win, and I just have to try it here too.
Como has 34 points and Milan has 40 points, but Milan has weak underlying numbers and has had some flow. Como has a home xG of 1.62 for and 1.00 against, while Milan away is at a rather weak 1.33 for and 1.41 against.
My bet is Como +0.5 in handicap, but for those who want more risk, Como draw no bet can also be relevant.
Milan has only won 4 of their last 10 away games. Como is unbeaten at home since May!
Como has had some injuries recently, including Morata, but no new injury problems, and they have performed well even with an absence. Milan is also struggling with injuries, and in addition, the important Tomori is suspended.
Milan is a slightly better team in isolation, but with Como at home I see this as an even match. Como also has one day more rest, which is a clear advantage.
I rate it at least a 62% chance of points, and see value down to 1.52.
Sportmarket.com is the market leader here!
📅 Friday 16. January ⏰ 19:00 🏆 Ligue 1
⚔️Monaco - Lorient
🔢 2,43
🎯Lorient +0,5 Handicap
There is a lot to suggest that this is a good bet. Monaco has 23 points and an xG of 1.44 for and 1.50 against. Lorient has an xG of 1.34 for and 1.24 against. The numbers are therefore relatively similar in most areas.
Looking at the last three mutual matches, Lorient has been doing well. In September 2025, Lorient won at home 3–1, with xG 2.11–0.82. In March 2024, the match in Monaco ended 2–2, with xG 2.48–1.49 in favor of Monaco.
Monaco has played two games after the New Year. They won 3–1 away against weak Orléans in the cup, but were lucky and lost xG clearly with 0.75 to 2.40. In addition, they lost 3–1 against Lyon and also lost xG clearly, 0.85 to 1.71. This indicates poor form after Christmas, which is probably related to many absences. Monaco is also missing a lot of players for this match – an estimated 8–10 who are either injured, suspended or busy with the African Championship.
Lorient, on the other hand, has few injuries and plays consistently against most teams. The 1–0 win against Lyon (xG 1.51–1.04) is a good example, and they have also managed a draw against PSG.
Monaco plays at home and is naturally ranked as a better team. Nevertheless, away teams pick up points in about 46% of the matches in this league. With two teams that have performed quite similarly and Monaco's major relegation challenges, I give Lorient at least a 45% chance of points, and see value down to around 2.20.
Sportmarket.com is the market leader here!
📅 Friday 16. January ⏰ 19:00 🏆 Ligue 1
⚔️Monaco - Lorient
🔢 2,43
🎯Lorient +0,5 Handicap
There is a lot to suggest that this is a good bet. Monaco has 23 points and an xG of 1.44 for and 1.50 against. Lorient has an xG of 1.34 for and 1.24 against. The numbers are therefore relatively similar in most areas.
Looking at the last three mutual matches, Lorient has been doing well. In September 2025, Lorient won at home 3–1, with xG 2.11–0.82. In March 2024, the match in Monaco ended 2–2, with xG 2.48–1.49 in favor of Monaco.
Monaco has played two games after the New Year. They won 3–1 away against weak Orléans in the cup, but were lucky and lost xG clearly with 0.75 to 2.40. In addition, they lost 3–1 against Lyon and also lost xG clearly, 0.85 to 1.71. This indicates poor form after Christmas, which is probably related to many absences. Monaco is also missing a lot of players for this match – an estimated 8–10 who are either injured, suspended or busy with the African Championship.
Lorient, on the other hand, has few injuries and plays consistently against most teams. The 1–0 win against Lyon (xG 1.51–1.04) is a good example, and they have also managed a draw against PSG.
Monaco plays at home and is naturally ranked as a better team. Nevertheless, away teams pick up points in about 46% of the matches in this league. With two teams that have performed quite similarly and Monaco's major relegation challenges, I give Lorient at least a 45% chance of points, and see value down to around 2.20.
Sportmarket.com is the market leader here!
📅 Sunday 18. January ⏰ 15:00 🏆 Premier League
⚔️Wolverhampton - Newcastle
🔢 1,71
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🎯Wolverhampton +0,5 Handicap
I tipped Wolverhampton against both Everton and Manchester United with success, and this time too the line-up looks very good. Wolverhampton are admittedly a clear bottom team in the table, but their recent performances do not suggest that they are playing like a bottom team.
They beat Shrewsbury in the cup, had a very deserved draw away from Everton, and beat a poor West Ham 3–0 – where West Ham had 0 shots on goal! There was also a deserved draw away from United (xG 1.88–1.41), and they could easily have taken points away from Liverpool too. The squad looks good now.
Newcastle are of course a better team on paper, but there are several factors that point to trouble here. They have a tough match schedule, with the League Cup on Tuesday and the Champions League match on Wednesday. In addition, there are many injuries in the defence, and their away form is somewhat questionable – only 2 away wins so far.
They were outplayed by Brentford (lost 3–1, xG 1.77–0.65 in favour of Brentford), and also lost 3–1 to weak West Ham (xG 1.86–1.58 in favour of West Ham).
There is already some smart money on this outcome. Newcastle are natural favourites, but I give Wolverhampton around a 47% chance here of a point, and see clear value all the way down to odds of 2.15.
📅 Sunday 18. January ⏰ 15:00 🏆 Premier League
⚔️Wolverhampton - Newcastle
🔢 1,71
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🎯Wolverhampton +0,5 Handicap
I tipped Wolverhampton against both Everton and Manchester United with success, and this time too the line-up looks very good. Wolverhampton are admittedly a clear bottom team in the table, but their recent performances do not suggest that they are playing like a bottom team.
They beat Shrewsbury in the cup, had a very deserved draw away from Everton, and beat a poor West Ham 3–0 – where West Ham had 0 shots on goal! There was also a deserved draw away from United (xG 1.88–1.41), and they could easily have taken points away from Liverpool too. The squad looks good now.
Newcastle are of course a better team on paper, but there are several factors that point to trouble here. They have a tough match schedule, with the League Cup on Tuesday and the Champions League match on Wednesday. In addition, there are many injuries in the defence, and their away form is somewhat questionable – only 2 away wins so far.
They were outplayed by Brentford (lost 3–1, xG 1.77–0.65 in favour of Brentford), and also lost 3–1 to weak West Ham (xG 1.86–1.58 in favour of West Ham).
There is already some smart money on this outcome. Newcastle are natural favourites, but I give Wolverhampton around a 47% chance here of a point, and see clear value all the way down to odds of 2.15.
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