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I analyze around 400 matches every month from leagues that I follow closely. From those, I typically find about 60 value bets, and and I share some of the tips on this page
I worked as a bookmaker for 20 years and built a strong network of contacts who are experts in sports I don’t specialize in myself, such as tennis, handball, and some smaller European football leagues. I share those tips on this site as well. In total ca. 100 valuebets every month.
Ca. 60 tips are posted on this page every month!
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📅 Sunday 12. april ⏰ 11:00 🏆 Tennis
⚔️Collignon - Prizmic
🔢 1,73
🎲
🎯Collignon to win
My tennis contact with 15 of the last 20 tennis tips won. New tip and great value from this bookmaker!
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📅 Sunday 12. april ⏰ 11:00 🏆 Tennis
⚔️Collignon - Prizmic
🔢 1,73
🎲
🎯Collignon to win
My tennis contact with 15 of the last 20 tennis tips won. New tip and great value from this bookmaker!
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📅 Sunday 12. april ⏰ 12:30 🏆 Serie A
⚔️Genoa - Sassuolo
🔢 1,90
🎲
🎯Both teams to score YES
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The bet is taken for several reasons. An external tip from an Italian contact, combined with my own analysis, supports this choice. Both teams have created more than they have been rewarded for, and they are also among the five weakest when it comes to giving up chances.
The last seven head-to-head matches have all ended with both teams scoring. In addition, an entertaining match was played in November, with a total xG well over 3 and almost 30 shots in total.
Value down to 1.83
📅 Sunday 12. april ⏰ 12:30 🏆 Serie A
⚔️Genoa - Sassuolo
🔢 1,90
🎲
🎯Both teams to score YES
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The bet is taken for several reasons. An external tip from an Italian contact, combined with my own analysis, supports this choice. Both teams have created more than they have been rewarded for, and they are also among the five weakest when it comes to giving up chances.
The last seven head-to-head matches have all ended with both teams scoring. In addition, an entertaining match was played in November, with a total xG well over 3 and almost 30 shots in total.
Value down to 1.83
📅 Sunday 12. april ⏰ 14:00 🏆 Norwegian 3 Division 2
⚔️Spjelkavik - Herd
🔢 2,20
🎯Herd +1,5 Handicap
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These are local teams for me and teams I have followed closely for many years.
Local bookmaker Norsk Tipping does not offer this handicap, but the odds also indicate that this is a good bet.
Spjelkavik were good last year, but have received a lot of new things this year, and this match will not be played on their dreaded grass pitch. Herd are newly promoted, but have received many reinforcements and will assert themselves this year.
This is a rare local match, with only 1 km between the teams, and thus little home field advantage.
I give Herd at least a 50% chance of holding the handicap, and see value all the way down to 1.97 on Herd +1.5 handicap.
📅 Sunday 12. april ⏰ 14:00 🏆 Norwegian 3 Division 2
⚔️Spjelkavik - Herd
🔢 2,20
🎯Herd +1,5 Handicap
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These are local teams for me and teams I have followed closely for many years.
Local bookmaker Norsk Tipping does not offer this handicap, but the odds also indicate that this is a good bet.
Spjelkavik were good last year, but have received a lot of new things this year, and this match will not be played on their dreaded grass pitch. Herd are newly promoted, but have received many reinforcements and will assert themselves this year.
This is a rare local match, with only 1 km between the teams, and thus little home field advantage.
I give Herd at least a 50% chance of holding the handicap, and see value all the way down to 1.97 on Herd +1.5 handicap.
📅 Sunday 12. april ⏰ 16:00 🏆 Premier League
⚔️Crystal Palace - Newcastle
🔢
🎲
🎯
Here is the tip that was sent out to all users here
https://tipstrr.com/tipster/exbookmaker
Odds. 1.83
Over 2.5 goals
I have bet over or BTTS on Newcastle several times earlier this year, mostly with success, and I think a lot speaks for goals here too. Newcastle are only 13th in the table, but are actually number 6 in the number of chances created. This shows that they are more than good enough offensively, but they have struggled defensively.
Their matches often tend to be very open. The important anchor Bruno is out, and the team has struggled with injuries to key defenders throughout the season. Palace are not a typical overmatched team, but 8 of the last 15 games have been over, and they certainly have players up front who can punish this Newcastle team.
A draw is not a good result for either team, and both have the potential to fight for a European Cup place. I expect an open match, and bet over 2.5 goals. Playable down to 1.75.
📅 Sunday 12. april ⏰ 16:00 🏆 Premier League
⚔️Crystal Palace - Newcastle
🔢
🎲
🎯
Here is the tip that was sent out to all users here
https://tipstrr.com/tipster/exbookmaker
Odds. 1.83
Over 2.5 goals
I have bet over or BTTS on Newcastle several times earlier this year, mostly with success, and I think a lot speaks for goals here too. Newcastle are only 13th in the table, but are actually number 6 in the number of chances created. This shows that they are more than good enough offensively, but they have struggled defensively.
Their matches often tend to be very open. The important anchor Bruno is out, and the team has struggled with injuries to key defenders throughout the season. Palace are not a typical overmatched team, but 8 of the last 15 games have been over, and they certainly have players up front who can punish this Newcastle team.
A draw is not a good result for either team, and both have the potential to fight for a European Cup place. I expect an open match, and bet over 2.5 goals. Playable down to 1.75.
📅 Sunday 12. april ⏰ 17:00 🏆 Eliteserien
⚔️Aalesund - KFUM Oslo
🔢 1,81
🎲 Epicbet
🎯Over 2,5 goals
Epicbet are way above the rest with 1.81
I'm playing this one early for several reasons. This bookmaker is clearly the market leader. I've played over or BTTS in several of Aalesund's matches, and I just have to keep doing it here. These are two teams where the matches often become very open, and both teams are stronger offensively than defensively.
Aalesund will be relegated if they don't get a better defense in place. Elias Hagen was positive offensively in the previous match, with a good passing foot, but weakens the team defensively by covering less space than Hammer. Syversen is positive defensively, but as of now all the stoppers look like OBOS stoppers. There is also uncertainty about whether Klaesson is good enough. Offensively, Aaalesund is good enough.
Aalesund has 4 out of 5 matches over so far this season, and KFUM also has 4 out of 5 over. KFUM's matches are often very open and have a lot of chances. Two teams that are both dangerous on set pieces and not so solid on defensive set pieces.
Here is an example: Fredrikstad – KFUM 3–1, with xG 1.75–1.67. An example for Aalesund is Aalesund against Lillestrøm, which ended 1–3 with xG 1.64–1.97.
The market has fallen a bit, and there has been some smart money on this outcome today. When Epicbet is not quite keeping up, we have to take advantage of it.
The market indicates value down to about 1.74, and I agree with that.
📅 Sunday 12. april ⏰ 17:00 🏆 Eliteserien
⚔️Aalesund - KFUM Oslo
🔢 1,81
🎲 Epicbet
🎯Over 2,5 goals
Epicbet are way above the rest with 1.81
I'm playing this one early for several reasons. This bookmaker is clearly the market leader. I've played over or BTTS in several of Aalesund's matches, and I just have to keep doing it here. These are two teams where the matches often become very open, and both teams are stronger offensively than defensively.
Aalesund will be relegated if they don't get a better defense in place. Elias Hagen was positive offensively in the previous match, with a good passing foot, but weakens the team defensively by covering less space than Hammer. Syversen is positive defensively, but as of now all the stoppers look like OBOS stoppers. There is also uncertainty about whether Klaesson is good enough. Offensively, Aaalesund is good enough.
Aalesund has 4 out of 5 matches over so far this season, and KFUM also has 4 out of 5 over. KFUM's matches are often very open and have a lot of chances. Two teams that are both dangerous on set pieces and not so solid on defensive set pieces.
Here is an example: Fredrikstad – KFUM 3–1, with xG 1.75–1.67. An example for Aalesund is Aalesund against Lillestrøm, which ended 1–3 with xG 1.64–1.97.
The market has fallen a bit, and there has been some smart money on this outcome today. When Epicbet is not quite keeping up, we have to take advantage of it.
The market indicates value down to about 1.74, and I agree with that.
📅 Saturday 12. april ⏰ 19:15 🏆 Eliteserien
⚔️Brann - Sandefjord
🔢 1,66
🎯Sandefjord +1,5 handicap
I played a lot at Sandefjord last year, with mostly good results, and it seems that the bookmakers are still underestimating them.
Brann are of course clear favorites here on their own turf, but everything indicates that they are not at the same level as last year. There have been a number of substitutions, especially in defense, with both injuries and a loss of form. The points and performances so far have not been great either.
They did win 5–1 against HamKam, but the xG was 2.16–1.61. They lost 1–2 against Tromsø, with an xG of 1.25–1.52, where Tromsø was clearly the best. In addition, they have an away loss against Kristiansund that was deserved and a narrow victory in the cup against Bryne.
Sandefjord were good last year, and even though they have only taken 3 out of 9 possible points so far, their performances have been solid. They also come into this match injury-free.
KFUM – Sandefjord ended 2–1, but xG was 1.51–0.88 in favor of Sandefjord. Against Sarpsborg they lost 0–2, with xG 1.86–1.26, again in their favor. Away against Vålerenga it was 0–1, with xG 1.82–1.59, once again with the advantage for Sandefjord. So they have won xg in all 3 of their matches.
Sandefjord are strong on set pieces, and they will get opportunities on transitions here with good Dunsby and more
I play Sandefjord +1.5 handicap and it is playable down to 1.58, and for those who want higher odds there are also alternative handicap bets such as +0.5 Handicap. Valubet here!
📅 Saturday 12. april ⏰ 19:15 🏆 Eliteserien
⚔️Brann - Sandefjord
🔢 1,66
🎯Sandefjord +1,5 handicap
I played a lot at Sandefjord last year, with mostly good results, and it seems that the bookmakers are still underestimating them.
Brann are of course clear favorites here on their own turf, but everything indicates that they are not at the same level as last year. There have been a number of substitutions, especially in defense, with both injuries and a loss of form. The points and performances so far have not been great either.
They did win 5–1 against HamKam, but the xG was 2.16–1.61. They lost 1–2 against Tromsø, with an xG of 1.25–1.52, where Tromsø was clearly the best. In addition, they have an away loss against Kristiansund that was deserved and a narrow victory in the cup against Bryne.
Sandefjord were good last year, and even though they have only taken 3 out of 9 possible points so far, their performances have been solid. They also come into this match injury-free.
KFUM – Sandefjord ended 2–1, but xG was 1.51–0.88 in favor of Sandefjord. Against Sarpsborg they lost 0–2, with xG 1.86–1.26, again in their favor. Away against Vålerenga it was 0–1, with xG 1.82–1.59, once again with the advantage for Sandefjord. So they have won xg in all 3 of their matches.
Sandefjord are strong on set pieces, and they will get opportunities on transitions here with good Dunsby and more
I play Sandefjord +1.5 handicap and it is playable down to 1.58, and for those who want higher odds there are also alternative handicap bets such as +0.5 Handicap. Valubet here!
📅 Sunday 12. april ⏰ 21:30 🏆 Portugal
⚔️Estoril - Porto
🔢 1,75
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🎯Estoril +1,5 handicap
External tip from a trusted contact, combined with my own analysis, supports this bet and suggests good value for several reasons.
Porto has a very tough match against Forest on Thursday, followed by another important away game in England the following week. This could affect both their focus and team selection. Porto currently sits 1st in the table, while Estoril is in 7th place.
Looking at the xG numbers, they do not suggest that Porto should be as big favorites as the odds imply. Estoril at home: 1.42 xG for and 1.27 against. Porto away: 1.60 for and 1.15 against.
It’s also worth noting that Porto has not won by more than one goal in any of their last nine away matches in all competitions. Looking at matches against teams at a similar or weaker level than Estoril, we find several close contests:
CD Nacional – Porto 0–1 (xG: 0.98–1.22)
Vitória Guimarães – Porto 0–1 (xG: 1.90–1.25)
The teams also met in November, when Porto won 1–0 in a tight match (xG: 1.42–1.20 in Porto’s favor).
Porto is also dealing with several absences. Estoril has had some injuries recently, but several players are now returning, according to a reliable source.
I’m backing Estoril +1.5 handicap and see value down to 1.65 odds. For those seeking higher odds, a different Estoril handicap could also be considered.
📅 Sunday 12. april ⏰ 21:30 🏆 Portugal
⚔️Estoril - Porto
🔢 1,75
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🎯Estoril +1,5 handicap
External tip from a trusted contact, combined with my own analysis, supports this bet and suggests good value for several reasons.
Porto has a very tough match against Forest on Thursday, followed by another important away game in England the following week. This could affect both their focus and team selection. Porto currently sits 1st in the table, while Estoril is in 7th place.
Looking at the xG numbers, they do not suggest that Porto should be as big favorites as the odds imply. Estoril at home: 1.42 xG for and 1.27 against. Porto away: 1.60 for and 1.15 against.
It’s also worth noting that Porto has not won by more than one goal in any of their last nine away matches in all competitions. Looking at matches against teams at a similar or weaker level than Estoril, we find several close contests:
CD Nacional – Porto 0–1 (xG: 0.98–1.22)
Vitória Guimarães – Porto 0–1 (xG: 1.90–1.25)
The teams also met in November, when Porto won 1–0 in a tight match (xG: 1.42–1.20 in Porto’s favor).
Porto is also dealing with several absences. Estoril has had some injuries recently, but several players are now returning, according to a reliable source.
I’m backing Estoril +1.5 handicap and see value down to 1.65 odds. For those seeking higher odds, a different Estoril handicap could also be considered.
📅 Monday 13. april ⏰ 13:00 🏆 Tennis ATP Munich
⚔️Diallo - Sachko
🔢
🎲
🎯
New great tennis tip sent out here to all my followers. Check out if you want tips sent to you.
📅 Monday 13. april ⏰ 13:00 🏆 Tennis ATP Munich
⚔️Diallo - Sachko
🔢
🎲
🎯
New great tennis tip sent out here to all my followers. Check out if you want tips sent to you.
📅 Monday 13. april ⏰ 17:00 🏆 Tennis ATP Munich
⚔️Blockx - Hanfmann
🔢
🎲
🎯
New great tennis tip sent out here to all my followers. Check out if you want tips sent to you.
📅 Monday 13. april ⏰ 17:00 🏆 Tennis ATP Munich
⚔️Blockx - Hanfmann
🔢
🎲
🎯
New great tennis tip sent out here to all my followers. Check out if you want tips sent to you.
📅 Monday 13. april ⏰ 21:00 🏆 Premier League
⚔️Manchester United - Leeds
🔢 1,74
🎲 Epicbet
🎯Both teams to score YES
Manchester United have been in good form and have delivered strong results since Carrick came in. At the same time, the matches have often been even and full of chances, such as in the 3–2 win against Fulham, where the xG was 1.58–1.76.
Leeds are a team that has been poorly paid, and both should have scored more and had around nine points more than they actually have. On the away field, they have five draws in a row, and all the matches have been even and full of chances, with Leeds creating a lot. Even at home against City and away against strong Aston Villa, Leeds created many chances.
When the teams met in January, it was a completely even match – entertaining and with many opportunities both ways. Leeds are probably close to the top team, and the main argument for the game is United's challenges in defense. Maguire is suspended, De Ligt is injured, and Martínez is uncertain. United's matches also tend to be quite open. Leeds are also good at set pieces, and it will be interesting to see how Man U handles this without Maguire.
I considered Leeds with a handicap, but United are so sharp offensively that I think "both teams to score - yes" is a better bet. Playable down to 1.68.
📅 Monday 13. april ⏰ 21:00 🏆 Premier League
⚔️Manchester United - Leeds
🔢 1,74
🎲 Epicbet
🎯Both teams to score YES
Manchester United have been in good form and have delivered strong results since Carrick came in. At the same time, the matches have often been even and full of chances, such as in the 3–2 win against Fulham, where the xG was 1.58–1.76.
Leeds are a team that has been poorly paid, and both should have scored more and had around nine points more than they actually have. On the away field, they have five draws in a row, and all the matches have been even and full of chances, with Leeds creating a lot. Even at home against City and away against strong Aston Villa, Leeds created many chances.
When the teams met in January, it was a completely even match – entertaining and with many opportunities both ways. Leeds are probably close to the top team, and the main argument for the game is United's challenges in defense. Maguire is suspended, De Ligt is injured, and Martínez is uncertain. United's matches also tend to be quite open. Leeds are also good at set pieces, and it will be interesting to see how Man U handles this without Maguire.
I considered Leeds with a handicap, but United are so sharp offensively that I think "both teams to score - yes" is a better bet. Playable down to 1.68.
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