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📅 Monday 7. february  ⏰ 17:3 🏆Speedskating 1000 M Women

⚔️Leerdam - Any Other

🔢 2,90

🎲 Many bookies offer this bet

🎯Any other

very small margins on this event which means she could easily lose the gold even though she is the favorite. Good value in this one that Leerdam does not take gold.

📅 Monday 9. february  ⏰ 21:00 🏆  La Liga

⚔️Villareal - Espanyol

🔢 2,30

🎲 Sportmarket.com

🎯Espanyol +0,5 Handicap

I’m playing this early, as I believe the odds will move even lower. The bet is based on several factors. There is already a fair amount of smart money in the market on Espanyol.

There are some absences on both sides, but Villarreal are clearly the more affected team. Villarreal have 42 points and Espanyol 34, but these are two fairly evenly matched sides when you look beyond the raw results.

Villarreal have an xG for of 1.41 and an xG against of 1.49. Espanyol are at 1.46 xG for and 1.41 against. Villarreal are natural home favorites, but away teams take points in around 55% of the matches here. I give Espanyol roughly a 46% chance in this game and see value down to odds of 2.15.

📅 Tuesday 10. february  ⏰ 20:30 🏆  Premier League

⚔️Tottenham - Newcastle

🔢 1,79

🎲 Sportmarket.com

🎯Over 2,5 goals

I have played a few over-variants on Newcastle lately, mostly successfully, and I think this looks like a match that could clearly produce a number of goals. Both teams have a playing style where, in periods when they have momentum, they create a lot offensively. At the same time, we see that when they come under pressure, they struggle to resist as a team.

Both teams are generally involved in many entertaining matches. A couple of examples:

Tottenham – West Ham 1–2, xG 2.32–1.62

Newcastle – Bournemouth 3–3, xG 2.37–2.52

Both teams have several good offensive profiles, although Tottenham is somewhat affected by injuries. Defensively, however, there are major challenges on both sides. Porro, Davies and Danso are injured, in addition to Romero being suspended.

Statistically, this also supports a goal bet:

Tottenham: 12 of the last 21 matches have gone over 2.5 goals

Newcastle: 16 of the last 21 matches have gone over 2.5 goals

10 of the last 12 head-to-head matches have ended with over 2.5 goals

Both Teams to Score and over 3.5 goals are also relevant bets, but I'm going with over 2.5 goals, which I'm putting at 58% probability and considering as playable down to 1.72 odds.

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