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For over 20 years I have worked as an international bookmaker, and odds have been a part of my everyday life all the way. Analysis and use of expected goals – where I look behind the actual results – form much of the basis for my tips. Now I use this experience to give you free odds tips 365 days a year!
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📅 Sunday 18. January ⏰ 15:00 🏆 Premier League
⚔️Wolverhampton - Newcastle
🔢 2,30
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🎯Wolverhampton +0,5 Handicap
I tipped Wolverhampton against both Everton and Manchester United with success, and this time too the line-up looks very good. Wolverhampton are admittedly a clear bottom team in the table, but their recent performances do not suggest that they are playing like a bottom team.
They beat Shrewsbury in the cup, had a very deserved draw away from Everton, and beat a poor West Ham 3–0 – where West Ham had 0 shots on goal! There was also a deserved draw away from United (xG 1.88–1.41), and they could easily have taken points away from Liverpool too. The squad looks good now.
Newcastle are of course a better team on paper, but there are several factors that point to trouble here. They have a tough match schedule, with the League Cup on Tuesday and the Champions League match on Wednesday. In addition, there are many injuries in the defence, and their away form is somewhat questionable – only 2 away wins so far.
They were outplayed by Brentford (lost 3–1, xG 1.77–0.65 in favour of Brentford), and also lost 3–1 to weak West Ham (xG 1.86–1.58 in favour of West Ham).
There is already some smart money on this outcome. Newcastle are natural favourites, but I give Wolverhampton around a 47% chance here of a point, and see clear value all the way down to odds of 2.15.
📅 Sunday 18. January ⏰ 15:00 🏆 Premier League
⚔️Wolverhampton - Newcastle
🔢 2,30
🎲 Sportmarket.com - NEW BOOKMAKER! ALWAYS HIGH ODDS! use the link and promo code PROMO25 - increases the sign-up bonus to 50% up to €150!
🎯Wolverhampton +0,5 Handicap
I tipped Wolverhampton against both Everton and Manchester United with success, and this time too the line-up looks very good. Wolverhampton are admittedly a clear bottom team in the table, but their recent performances do not suggest that they are playing like a bottom team.
They beat Shrewsbury in the cup, had a very deserved draw away from Everton, and beat a poor West Ham 3–0 – where West Ham had 0 shots on goal! There was also a deserved draw away from United (xG 1.88–1.41), and they could easily have taken points away from Liverpool too. The squad looks good now.
Newcastle are of course a better team on paper, but there are several factors that point to trouble here. They have a tough match schedule, with the League Cup on Tuesday and the Champions League match on Wednesday. In addition, there are many injuries in the defence, and their away form is somewhat questionable – only 2 away wins so far.
They were outplayed by Brentford (lost 3–1, xG 1.77–0.65 in favour of Brentford), and also lost 3–1 to weak West Ham (xG 1.86–1.58 in favour of West Ham).
There is already some smart money on this outcome. Newcastle are natural favourites, but I give Wolverhampton around a 47% chance here of a point, and see clear value all the way down to odds of 2.15.
📅 Sunday 18. January ⏰ 16:15 🏆 La Liga
⚔️Atletico Madrid - Alaves
🔢 1,79
🎯Alaves +1,5 Handicap
An interesting match on Sunday from Spain, where Alavés has much better underlying numbers than the table shows. Atlético is number 4 and Alavés number 16 in the table, but in the xG table Alavés is all the way up to 11th place. They have delivered several strong performances that have either given them points, or that should have given them points.
Against Villarreal, Alavés lost 1–3, but won the xG clearly with 1.71–1.20, and also had the most shots and corners. Against Real Madrid, they narrowly lost 1–2, with an xG of 0.93–1.52.
Atlético is known as a team that gets results without necessarily impressing. Only 2 of the last 12 matches in all competitions have been won by more than two goals. In addition, Atlético has an important Champions League match on Wednesday.
The last two head-to-head matches between the teams have both ended in draws.
Sportmarket.com is the market leader here!
📅 Sunday 18. January ⏰ 16:15 🏆 La Liga
⚔️Atletico Madrid - Alaves
🔢 1,79
🎯Alaves +1,5 Handicap
An interesting match on Sunday from Spain, where Alavés has much better underlying numbers than the table shows. Atlético is number 4 and Alavés number 16 in the table, but in the xG table Alavés is all the way up to 11th place. They have delivered several strong performances that have either given them points, or that should have given them points.
Against Villarreal, Alavés lost 1–3, but won the xG clearly with 1.71–1.20, and also had the most shots and corners. Against Real Madrid, they narrowly lost 1–2, with an xG of 0.93–1.52.
Atlético is known as a team that gets results without necessarily impressing. Only 2 of the last 12 matches in all competitions have been won by more than two goals. In addition, Atlético has an important Champions League match on Wednesday.
The last two head-to-head matches between the teams have both ended in draws.
Sportmarket.com is the market leader here!
📅 Sunday 18. January ⏰ 18:00 🏆 Serie A
⚔️Torino - Roma
🔢 1,83
🎯Torino +0,5 Handicap
Roma is the better team, but home field advantage and Torino's strong underlying numbers make this a relatively even match. Torino has a home xG of 1.43 for and 1.43 against. They play evenly against all teams and have beaten Napoli, among others.
Roma has an away xG of 1.44 for and 1.28 against, and have lost three of their last four away matches.
The teams met in Rome in the cup on Tuesday in a very even match, where Torino won 3–2 away, and with xG figures of 1.34–1.22 in Roma's favour.
Both teams have several downfalls in this match, and as I assess it, they are about equally hit.
Home teams pick up points in around 66% of the matches in Serie A, and I give Torino about a 58% chance of points here, with a bet value down to around 1.70.
Sportmarket.com is the market leader here!
📅 Sunday 18. January ⏰ 18:00 🏆 Serie A
⚔️Torino - Roma
🔢 1,83
🎯Torino +0,5 Handicap
Roma is the better team, but home field advantage and Torino's strong underlying numbers make this a relatively even match. Torino has a home xG of 1.43 for and 1.43 against. They play evenly against all teams and have beaten Napoli, among others.
Roma has an away xG of 1.44 for and 1.28 against, and have lost three of their last four away matches.
The teams met in Rome in the cup on Tuesday in a very even match, where Torino won 3–2 away, and with xG figures of 1.34–1.22 in Roma's favour.
Both teams have several downfalls in this match, and as I assess it, they are about equally hit.
Home teams pick up points in around 66% of the matches in Serie A, and I give Torino about a 58% chance of points here, with a bet value down to around 1.70.
Sportmarket.com is the market leader here!
📅 Sunday 18. January ⏰ 20:45 🏆 Serie A
⚔️Milan - Lecce
🔢 1,98
🎯Lecce +1,5 Handicap
I have gone against Milan in three games now, scoring in two of them. They were very unlucky against Como, and it was a good game even if it didn't go in. The xG was 2.18–0.86 in favor of Como, and the shot statistics were 18–7, also for Como.
Now Milan face a weaker team than Como, but Lecce have better underlying numbers than their position in the table suggests. They play evenly against everyone, even against the top teams: Inter–Lecce 1–0 and Juventus–Lecce 1–1 are examples of that.
Milan played on Thursday, while Lecce played on Wednesday, and that definitely matters. Milan are clear favorites, but they rarely win by two goals or more. Even at home, they have only done so in 2 of the last 10 games.
Lecce has around a 54% chance of holding the handicap, and that gives value to approx. odds 1.85 on Lecce +1.5 Handicap
Sportmarket.com is the market leader here!
📅 Sunday 18. January ⏰ 20:45 🏆 Serie A
⚔️Milan - Lecce
🔢 1,98
🎯Lecce +1,5 Handicap
I have gone against Milan in three games now, scoring in two of them. They were very unlucky against Como, and it was a good game even if it didn't go in. The xG was 2.18–0.86 in favor of Como, and the shot statistics were 18–7, also for Como.
Now Milan face a weaker team than Como, but Lecce have better underlying numbers than their position in the table suggests. They play evenly against everyone, even against the top teams: Inter–Lecce 1–0 and Juventus–Lecce 1–1 are examples of that.
Milan played on Thursday, while Lecce played on Wednesday, and that definitely matters. Milan are clear favorites, but they rarely win by two goals or more. Even at home, they have only done so in 2 of the last 10 games.
Lecce has around a 54% chance of holding the handicap, and that gives value to approx. odds 1.85 on Lecce +1.5 Handicap
Sportmarket.com is the market leader here!
📅 Monday 19. January ⏰ 18:00 🏆 Handball European Championship
⚔️Netherlands - Croatia
🔢 1,98
🎲 Epicbet
🎯Netherlands +2,5 Handicap
Through my 20 years in the bookmaking industry I have made many good contacts with expertise in different sports such as handball and I get tips from them. I post several of those tips. Here is one of them!
📅 Monday 19. January ⏰ 18:00 🏆 Handball European Championship
⚔️Netherlands - Croatia
🔢 1,98
🎲 Epicbet
🎯Netherlands +2,5 Handicap
Through my 20 years in the bookmaking industry I have made many good contacts with expertise in different sports such as handball and I get tips from them. I post several of those tips. Here is one of them!
📅 Tuesday 20. January ⏰ 21:00 🏆 Champions League
⚔️Inter - Arsenal
🔢 1,94
🎯Under 2,5 goals
Perhaps two of the best defences in Europe. Inter with xG against 0.80 and Arsenal with 1.07. Arsenal will certainly go into this match with a cautious approach, and will be very happy with a draw here.
Arsenal are solid defensively, but have not impressed offensively lately. Although they have scored a few goals, they have had good results, for example against Bournemouth and Chelsea.
I imagine a similar match picture to the one against Liverpool, where the teams take each other out and there will be few scoring chances. The teams met in November 2024, and Inter won 1–0 in a rather boring match with only five shots on goal.
Approx. 54% probability of under 2.5 goals and value down to 1.85. Other relevant bets could be that Inter will get the most corners, as they will probably control the match and both teams NOT to score could also be a relevant bet
Sportmarket.com is the market leader here!
📅 Tuesday 20. January ⏰ 21:00 🏆 Champions League
⚔️Inter - Arsenal
🔢 1,94
🎯Under 2,5 goals
Perhaps two of the best defences in Europe. Inter with xG against 0.80 and Arsenal with 1.07. Arsenal will certainly go into this match with a cautious approach, and will be very happy with a draw here.
Arsenal are solid defensively, but have not impressed offensively lately. Although they have scored a few goals, they have had good results, for example against Bournemouth and Chelsea.
I imagine a similar match picture to the one against Liverpool, where the teams take each other out and there will be few scoring chances. The teams met in November 2024, and Inter won 1–0 in a rather boring match with only five shots on goal.
Approx. 54% probability of under 2.5 goals and value down to 1.85. Other relevant bets could be that Inter will get the most corners, as they will probably control the match and both teams NOT to score could also be a relevant bet
Sportmarket.com is the market leader here!
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